Current Topics: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

For the past 2 months now Russia has shocked the world with it's cruel invasion of Ukraine. This began shortly after the Winter Olympics on Feb 24th. There was much buildup and speculation as Russian forces amassed near the border, however nobody really suspected they would go thru with it. Nowadays its a war of words, rarely a war of action and military force. But this was not the case for Russia under it's tyrannically leader Vladimir Putin. He has stubbornly initiated the first invasion of Europe since WW2. This affair is nothing like the past wars such as Korea, Vietnam, or the Middle East that were mostly guerilla skirmishes. This is a conventional war where each side is putting up it's full force head on against each other. Tanks, bombs, and trenches are overtaking the once civil land of Ukraine. 

As a history and geopolitical buff I find this to be one of the most interesting stories of our time (on par with Sept 11 or the Covid Pandemic). Russia is making a very bold move here against the western NATO powers lead by the mighty United States. Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, they have recently aligned themselves with the west, hence the reasoning for Russia's invasion. So with this act Russia is essentially breaking it's diplomatic ties from the west and reigniting the Cold War of 30 years ago. This conflict in Ukraine began in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed the Crimea region, however the matter was not resolved. It has now escalated much more then before with Ukraine making a very fierce resistance. 

In this post I'd like to break down this ongoing world event in 3 parts. First I'd like to understand the history and reasoning of Vladimir Putin. He clearly has dictator status within his country to pull of something as radical as this. What's further intriguing is how the majority of Russia's government and population is going along with this. Clearly Putin has a reason he believes in and is able to convince the general population. The 2nd part I'd like to dive into is the battlefront of this engagement. This after all is the first proper conventional war of force in a long time. The 3rd and final part is my theorizing as to how this could all play out. At the moment this war hangs in the balance and could go so many different directions. 

Vladimir Putin's Reasoning

So the key player in this entire affair is Russia's president Vladimir Putin. With a long history in Soviet KGB administration he quickly climbed the ranks of public office. He has been at the forefront of Russia's government since 1999 when he first became prime minister. He then became president from 2000 until 2008; and then became prime minister once again from 2008-2012 while Dmitry Medvedev served as a de facto leader. Putin was able to return for a third and fourth term in 2012 until present day. The reason he has been in power for so long was a loophole in the law in which prohibited three consecutive terms, but no law against a break in between terms. He has thus now served two double term presidencies and has passed a law to grant him two more terms. So if all goes to plan Putin could be president for a grand total of 6 terms until 2036. 

This is without question one of the most powerful presidents of our present time, on par with the dictators of WWII. Unlike most democracies the president is kept in check by it's congress however that is not the case for Putin. It is clear that he controls the government with an iron fist and has built a circle of loyal officials. So with all this power he has amassed, what is Putin's motivating driving force? He is one of the most mundane, stoic, enigmatic leaders of our time and a very intriguing person to analyze. He doesn't share the charisma of other former dictators such as Hitler, Mussolini, or Stalin. Instead he comes off as a soft-spoken tactician, hiding his ambitions and emotions to an artform. I think however despite this bland personae, Putin is ultimately a very proud and bitter Russian who wants to recover the losses of the Soviet Union's fall in 1991. 

The question is why now does Russia want to reassert themselves after nearly 30 years of growing peace and stabilization with the world economy. In taking on this aggressive invasion, Russia has isolated themselves from not only the west but the majority of the world thru harsh sanctions. Even they're allies of China have taken a stance of neutrality. But surely Russia knew this was to be expected and they press on. They're claim is that they are on a peacekeeping mission trying to liberate loyal territory in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. They also are using the term "de-Nazifying" in reference to Ukraine's growing radical Neo-nazi Azov regiment in Mariupol. This is however a very small force and Russia is exploiting them to justify their cause. 

There are several reasons Russia is acting now. First is that the tensions with Ukraine have been growing for some time, even before the invasion of Crimea in 2014. The tension got more heated with the election of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 who has boldly ushered in a new era of modernization for his country. Zelensky has intended to further align Ukraine with the western nations rather than Russia's Soviet Eastern Bloc. This move by Ukraine to join NATO was the final straw for Putin. At the prime of his power, in a weakened society recovering from a pandemic, Putin felt his time to be aggressive was now or never. He intends to return glory to the former Soviet Union, whether in small parts or as much as he can take back. 

The War Front

Russia began with a multiple front invasion on Feb 24th at 3 main regions in Ukraine; the eastern Donbas borderline, the southern Crimean region along the Sea of Azov, and the northern capitol city of Kyiv. Russia utilized it's alliance with Belarus to establish a stronghold on the northern borderline before invading the capital city. As Putin began the shocking invasion he issued a serious warning to the rest of the world that Russia would use nuclear weapons if any interfered. This was most likely a fear mongering tactic, however it is a fact that Russia has the most nuclear arms in the world. Whether or not Putin is mad enough to use them, this has kept the United States and NATO from sending military assistance. 

However while Putin was able to scare the west off, the invasion did not begin as smoothly as he would have liked. From the onset President Zelensky took to social media and called for all able bodies to defend their nation. Zelensky quickly had the support of his nation and the west, and as they drove back the invaders it became clear that Putin had underestimated the Ukrainian resistance. The Russian military made minimal gains on all fronts, and reports quickly emerged that their army was de-moralized. Ukraine has been aided by superior American/British anti-tank and anti-air weapons used efficiently. However despite this strong resistance hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were still fleeing the country while their cities were heavily bombarded into ruins. 

By April 8th Putin realized his army could not easily subdue Kyiv, and decided to re-adjust their campaign to the eastern Donbas region. This withdrawal marked a major victory for Ukraine however also brought to light the atrocious war crimes committed by the Russian armies. Many civilians lay dead in the roads on the outer skirts of the capital city of Kyiv. The site was truly like something out of a WW2 movie. Russia sunk into further isolation, disapproval, and low morale when their flagship naval carrier of the Moskva was sunk on April 14th. However the stubborn Putin only intensified the Russian attacks on the Donbas region. Many key cities in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions came under siege such as Kherson, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Mariupol. 

For me one of the most interesting engagements in the war so far has been the resistance in Mariupol. It is at this key seaport city where the infamous Azov Battalion reign, noted for their neo-nazi white supremacy ideology. Russia propaganda used this small militia force of about 2500 members to deem it's invasion as an act of "de-Nazification". The regiment has stubbornly resisted the Russian siege and eventual occupation as they have taken fortification in the Azovstal Steel Plant. While Putin has recently declared the city has been secured, the steel plant still holds close to 1000 Ukrainian resistance fighters and civilians. This act of courage and defiance by the Azov Regiment has served to be quite a symbolic rallying cry for the Ukrainian spirit. 

At this point in the conflict it appears Russia has the stronghold of the Donbas region as battles wage on primarily in the city of Kharkiv. However it should also be noted that the Ukrainians are still resisting and defending this territory courageously. With continuous supplies and humanitarian support pouring in from the majority of the western world, Ukraine has a good chance to draw this eastern phase out and begin a counter-attack. Thus at this critical stage it still cannot be declared who has the upper hand in the conflict. At this stage the UN has estimated that 4000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3000 Ukranian civilians have been killed compared to 10,000 Russian soldiers. However these numbers are still fluctuating estimations with many more bodies to uncover. 

The Future Scenarios

What is most intriguing about this world event, is the many possible scenarios in how it might end. Russia's nuclear threat makes the entire situation a lot more complicated. Because of this threat the western allies led by the United States have made it clear they will not send military forces to fight against Russia. However the west has still been very outspoken against Russia's invasion, and have hit them with a series of harsh economic sanctions. Furthermore they have openly supplied Ukraine with powerful military weapons, supplies, and humanitarian aid. It is thanks to these modern weapons from the west that Ukraine is able to stand against the much larger Russian army. 

Putin began this invasion as a "peacekeeping mission for the loyalist eastern regions" yet a greater goal to swallow and annex all of Ukraine (just as they had recently done with Crimea). This proved to be a much greater challenge then Putin had anticipated and he has recently withdrawn his focus primarily to the eastern region of Ukraine. Russia already controls much of this territory and this will likely be the main battlefield of the campaign, especially with Ukrainian resistance and counter-attacks. So with this in mind, the first and most plausible scenario to bring a quick end to this invasion would be a compromise to give the Donetsk and Luhansk territory to Russia. This would be a minor victory for Russia, however they would likely still face further resistance from within and sanctions from the west.

The second scenario is that Ukraine digs in for the long haul and thru America's supplies are able to defend the Russian push. Despite being heavily outnumbered one thing Ukraine has as it's advantage is a higher moral to defend their land. The Russian army are mostly young conscripts fighting in a war they could care less about. The West will continue to aid the Ukrainian resistance no matter how long this war goes on for, since it will ultimately weaken Russia's army. The question then would be whether Putin is willing to accept total defeat and fully withdraw his army with absolutely nothing. 

Another question that comes into mind is whether Russia intends to further it's invasion to other former Soviet nations such as Moldova. They have already led assaults near the Moldova border at the southwestern Ukrainian seaport city of Odessa. Two other nations they have recently spoken out against are Finland and Sweden who are seeking membership into NATO. The other nations near the Eastern bloc such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Romania are all now NATO members and if Russia decides to invade those sovereignties they would be essentially declaring war on the United States. 

Another scenario would be if Vladimir Putin were to be ousted from president or even assassinated. The question then would be how far would his successors be willing to continue the invasion. An assassination would most likely increase hostilities and a coup d'etat could lead to civil war in Russia. There can be no question though that Putin is the driving force of this conflict and to remove him from power would make for an entirely different dynamic. This option would surely be necessary if Putin seeks to destroy the world via his nuclear arms. Hopefully the nuclear threat is nothing more than a fear tactic, and Putin is not mad enough to bring the world down with him. I don't think it will come to this final option and despite his enigmatic stubborn pride, he is not at the wicked level of Hitler. He would likely accept defeat before using nuclear weapons.