Friday, March 7, 2014

Foreign Affairs: Ukrainian Crisis

With the conclusion of the Sochi Winter Olympics, it seems Russia has wasted no time to once again meddle in foreign affairs. This time it's not Syria (still ongoing) or the Arab Spring, however a new conflict in Ukraine, over the Crimean region. This dispute arose from a people's revolution that ousted it's president, Viktor Yanukovych, to restore an older constitution. President Yanukovych had no choice but to flee to Russia for his safety. At which point Russia has responded with a full scale invasion of the Crimean region, to reestablish order. At this point there is a territorial dispute of the Crimean peninsula, whether it should stay with Ukraine or secede to Russia. This is a big developing story, worthy of some research and attention.


History of Crimea

The region of Crimea has a history of political disputes, and it's clear to understand why when you see it's location on a map. It's the lone peninsula of the Black Sea that happens to fall between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The region has been victim to numerous occupants due to it's seaside convenience. Throughout history it's been controlled by the Scythians, Sarmatians, Goths, Huns, Bulgars, Khazars, the Byzantine Empire, Mongols, the Ottoman Empire, and the Russian Empire

In the Crimean War of 1853 to 1856 this peninsula was the central war-front between the Russian Empire against the French, British, and Ottoman Empires. This dispute was fought over religious differences between the Catholics of the west and Orthodox Christians of the east, as well as control of the Black Sea. The final outcome was a victory for the western allies, making the Black sea a neutral zone. Crimea however remained under Russian control despite it's terrible devastation from the war. 

The region was also the scene of heavy fighting during World War I, The Russian Civil War, and World War II. In 1954 the region was transferred from the Soviet Russian Republic to the Soviet Ukrainian Republic, however still under Russian control. It wasn't until the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991 that the Crimea peninsula became a part of independent Ukraine. However the tension over this land between Russian and Ukraine, has never gone away.

Ukrainian Revolution

It should be noted that Viktor Yanukovych was once a member of the Communist Soviet Party and has always aligned with Russian interests. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the people of Ukraine have contested his elections as well as his leadership. The first of these civil outcries came at the Orange Revolution of 2004, when the Ukrainian people felt their election had been rigged. Viktor Yanukovych however held on to office as prime minister from 2002 to 2007 and became elected president in 2010.

The protests and civil unrest began last December 2013 when President Yanukovych chose not to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union. This lead to outrage and a movement against the president, organized by the Right Sector. On Feb 18th they initiated a peaceful offensive in Kiev, Ukraine, calling the president to resign. This however spiraled into quick escalation, violence, and full-scale uprising in the streets of Ukraine. By Feb 23rd the protesters were able to overthrow the president, who had no choice but to flee to Russia for his own safety. However before this new revolution could establish a government and return their constitution to it's old form, the Russian military intervened on Feb 27th with an invasion of the Crimean region. 

Russian Intervention

Vladimir Putin's rapid response of intervening on this matter, was a very bold move and major red flag on the diplomatic stage. What's especially interesting is that he chose not to go for the capital city of Kiev, where the revolution mostly took place, yet the disputed territory of Crimea. There are currently over 30,000 Russian troops that have seized control of the Crimea peninsula. This is a blatant infraction of international law, and has infuriated western leaders from the Unites States, Britain, France, Germany, etc. Russia's explanation for this invasion is to maintain peace and order on behalf of ousted president Yanakovych. However it seems quite obvious that there motives are politically driven as this region has strategic importance for Russia. Control of the Crimean peninsula allows them to have access to the Black sea, Mediterranean, and Atlantic Ocean.

At the moment, the leaders of the Ukrainian revolution are trying to find a diplomatic solution as their country has fallen into sheer division. Russia however has chosen not to recognize this new government, and declared they will not remove their military until normalcy has returned to Ukraine. Just yesterday the parliament of Crimea has acted to secede from Ukraine and rejoin Russia, however this is unconstitutional under Ukrainian law. The crisis thus continues as a diplomatic war of words over territory. What's especially frightening however is Russia's bold act of defiance in this entire matter. 

Vladimir Putin


It's no secret than Putin has been the top dog of Russia, since 2000 and has a very conservative approach. During the Soviet years, he served with the KGB, Soviet secret intelligence, from 1975 to 1991. He eventually climbed the political ladder to become president from 2000-2008, then became prime minister to Dmitry Medvedev from 2008-2012, then returned as president again in 2012. Throughout the past 14 years, Putin has maintained an iron fist of his authority and agenda. This agenda is rooted in Russian pride, and was especially displayed to the world a couple weeks ago at the Sochi Winter Olympics.  

Second Cold War

I can't help but notice some growing tension between the United States and Russia, dating back to the Arab Spring. Their defiant role to support Assad's regime in Syria was perhaps the first major flag. Just last fall Putin spoke directly to the American people when he warned it was dangerous for us to consider ourselves "exceptional". Although he makes a valid point, he has persisted to undermine President Obama and the United States on foreign matters, particularly in the case of Syria.

In this recent crisis, Russia is walking a very fine line on words and actions. This is a direct invasion of a sovereignty and quite simply an act of war. They have acted without approval from the United Nations and in defiance of international law. This intervention may be similar to the United States' invasion of Iraq or Libya, however we at least made a case before acting. Russia's motives here are selfish, stubborn, and clearly politically-driven. 

I can't help but wonder if we're embarking on a second cold war, or maybe if the first one never really went away. It was only 25 years ago, where Russia lost all its western territory at the fall of the Soviet Union, and perhaps they think it's time to get it all back. Perhaps they think they have the economic and military might to once again be considered a superpower. Consider how Germany collapsed after World War I and twenty years later made a fierce return because they felt they had been wronged. Perhaps modern-day-Russians and former-Soviets alike feel they were also wronged and the time to speak/act is now. 

Or maybe this is just is an isolated situation in Ukraine and apart from Syria and the Arab Spring, Russia is only trying to be an international police force just like the United States. It's hard to know for sure, what goes on behind the doors of these top diplomats and world leaders, however it's all very interesting stuff and has the potential to affect us all. Proxy wars are frightening stuff and can quickly grow into world wars. I think the big take away here in this recent development is Russia's statement. This crisis may eventually be settled through diplomatic negotiations or it could spill into a Ukrainian Civil War. However one thing is for sure; Russia means business!

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